Brexit: A House Divided
by Brady Condon
In his campaign for Senator of Illinois in 1858, Abraham Lincoln famously stated that a “house divided against itself cannot stand.” His words were prophetic, as America fell into its bloodiest conflict, the American Civil War, just two years later. Despite the accuracy of his claims, some nations fail to take this advice, especially the British. Although they have been able to remain united in the past, it seems that the issue of Brexit will finally divide this house against itself. In the 2016 Brexit Referendum, the divide between the four countries of the United Kingdom were exacerbated. Every part of Scotland voted to remain. Northern Ireland voted to remain, albeit more narrowly. Wales and England voted to leave. After three years of deadlock, Boris Johnson and the Conservative party now have the majority needed to leave the EU. With Brexit all but inevitable now, the stability of the United Kingdom is brought into question. The Scottish National Party, led by Nicola Sturgeon, recently asked Johnson for the powers to hold a referendum on Scottish independence. With Brexit happening, we must ask if the UK will stay together. To answer, we must look at the four countries of the United Kingdom.
Scotland
The United Kingdom is primarily a somewhat content marriage between Scotland and England that dates back to the seventeenth century. They’ve been bickering for centuries. Many of their scuffles were ameliorated when Prime Minister Tony Blair gave the Scots their own parliament back in the 90s, allowing them more autonomy. They still have their differences, though. Firstly, they argue over oil ownership. 60% of the EU’s oil supply comes from Scotland. Much of the oil revenue does not go to Scottish citizens. Many Scots also chafe at the nuclear weapons stored in Scotland. Despite the Scottish parliament’s opposition to nuclear weapons like the Trident Missile System, the British Parliament refuses to move them. These issues led to the first Scottish Independence referendum, in which Scotland voted to remain in the United Kingdom. To many, this was a renewing of vows; Scotland still had love in her heart for the United Kingdom. But Brexit might cause the divorce to happen. 62% of Scottish citizens voted to Remain in the European Union. Brexit threatens to cost the whole United Kingdom about 6.7% of its GDP. For many Scots, this is not worth the supposed benefits of Brexit. For instance, more immigration under the EU, a key rallying point for many Brexiteers, is not as controversial to the Scots, though a majority of Scots still want less of it. Despite their opposition, Brexit won out, and the United Kingdom will leave the European Union. If anything gets Scotland to leave the European Union, then it will be Brexit.
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland is the troubled child of the United Kingdom. The victim of a century-long custody battle between the United Kingdom and Ireland, Northern Ireland’s relationship to Westminster has always been unique. With the Good Friday Agreement, much of the instability in Northern Ireland subsided. The Northern Irish got their own parliament and the border between the Irelands was taken down, allowing for free passage between the two countries. The reason this agreement worked was because both nations were in the EU, allowing for an easier flow of goods and people than would normally be allowed. The Good Friday Agreement was effective enough to end decades of bloodshed, and kept a lasting peace. Many Northern Irish want to keep the Good Friday Agreement, which is why 55% of Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. The Good Friday Agreement is in jeopardy under Brexit. Under Johnson’s Brexit deal, Northern Ireland is made separate from the United Kingdom in that goods can flow into the “Irish Backstop” but have to go through customs. In all honesty, Johnson’s tackling of the Northern Ireland situation is convoluted and merely kicks the problem down the road a few years, allowing Northern Ireland to vote on their agreement in four years. If the Good Friday Agreement is rendered null and void, then it is likely that the Troubles may begin again. If Scotland successfully leaves the Union peacefully, then it is likely that violence the Northern Irish may violently erupt again.
Wales
Wales is the oft forgotten child of the United Kingdom; it isn’t even included on the flag. Ever since England’s conquest of the land in the 13th century, the land has lost a lot of its Welsh uniqueness. Only about a fifth of the Welsh population are native born Welsh-speakers. As time goes on, Welsh culture is becoming isolated to weird town names and Horse-Skull rap battles. With their diminishing diversity, their independence movements have also been relatively weak. Plaid Cymru, the Welsh Independence party, has rarely registered a blip on the political scene, only gaining a handful of seats in the House of Commons. They also voted extremely closely with England in Brexit, with a majority choosing to leave the EU. Despite voting in favor of Brexit, Wales might actually leave because of it. Currently. 70% of Ireland’s goods enter the city of Holyhead, the United Kingdom’s second largest port. This large flow of goods is contingent on free trade and customs between the two EU member states. Without this free trade, Holyhead would suffer immensely, as would much of Wales (or the rest of the UK for that matter). If Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK, then it is possible that Wales starts to consider exiting as well. If Scotland and/or Northern Ireland stay, then it is nearly impossible that Wales would leave.
England
England is the tired head of the family. After four centuries of empire, two world wars, and a bloody period of decolonization, the sun has already set on the British Empire. Frankly, many English citizens no longer have a taste for the Union. In one poll, a majority of Conservatives and Unionists, those who support Brexit the most, would prefer Brexit over the Union. Without the desire to keep the Union, or at least without the ultimate goal of keeping the Union, the United Kingdom is can’t be kept together. If Scotland chooses to leave, and England lets it happen, then everything else will fall apart.
Conclusion
Frankly, I don’t think Brexit will kill the United Kingdom. When the United Kingdom voted for Brexit, a large percent of the population hoped for a better economic future. However, I do not believe Brexit will provide that better future. As a result, I would hope that Britain comes to its senses and rejoins the EU. If they do not, then it is definitely possible, and somewhat probable, that the house divided against itself will collapse.