Unboxing Brexit - Its Likelihood and Global Implications

by Lara Decastecker

Brexit, or the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union, has been a long time overdue. And now, it’s up in the air again. 

See, nobody can predict what will happen anymore. After Theresa May (the last UK prime minister) was unable to make a deal after two attempts, her party, the Conservatives—i.e. the current majority party in the House of Commons—no longer had faith in her ability to get them a decent deal. Thus, she had to step down from her position. 

Then Boris Johnson, a fellow Conservative party member, took Theresa May’s place and gave the UK citizens a promise: on October 31st, Britain is out, deal or no deal. However, the vote did not occur when he proposed his deal on the 19th of October, and now, there’s an extension until the 31st of January!

Not only that, but the intensity of the chaos had already risen when Parliament was disbanded for a week. After that mayhem, British citizens became extremely unsure of their governments ability to make non-rash decisions. So it was no surprise when, after a failed vote, Boris Johnson called for an unexpected and unusual general election in December.

It is now November, and unfortunately, there is not a deal in sight. As parties split from their alliances, and citizens start to change their minds, Brexit has began to lose its popularity. But there’s not yet enough opposition to overturn the decision to leave.

In June 2016, 52% of UK citizens voted for Britain to leave the EU and 48% voted to stay. Now, the sides are estimated to have tipped to 47% voting to leave and 53% to stay. Since the margins are so small, is there really a best course of action? UK citizens aren’t in favour of another referendum (vote), so nobody truly knows. After all, only ⅓ of UK citizens believe that Britain will get a good deal if they leave. And interestingly enough, a small majority (51%) of people from Britain would actually rather stay! It appears that the fear of Brexit negatively impacting Britain’s economy and causing mass immigration has diminished the driving force behind British citizens’ desire to leave. In all honesty, Brexit issue might just be political game for those in power in the EU. That is to say, perhaps the politicians involved are merely fighting to see who can get more out of it instead of coming to a simple, fair compromise.

At any rate, despite the mounting Brexit opposition, the upcoming Prime Minister's election (unnatural timing and all), may be able to turn the tables around. Since the UK doesn’t have a fixed election date, Boris Johnson has decided to call it later in the year, when fewer voters are likely to come out. For him, this election is a big gamble to break through the masses and force Brexit to happen. 

If Boris Johnson is able to win more Conservative seats, a Brexit deal will be easier to pass. But that’s a big IF. Nonetheless, leaving without a deal is almost unnegotiable. In such a case, the ensuing port delays, traffic increases, and the disruption of supply routes would all contribute to the diminishment of the British economy. Then again, it’s not like British citizens have hope for a better option at this point. The future of their economy is unpredictable, and updates on the situation only hold the promise of more uncertainty. That is, until a decision is finally made…  

If a decision is ever made.