Canada’s Lackluster Conservative Race
By: Braeden Condon
In the eyes of many Americans, Justin Trudeau has it all. He’s young, he’s woke, and he’s hot. If prom still existed in these times, he’d win both prom king and prom queen. Unfortunately for Trudeau, Canada is comprised of a bit more than just high schoolers. As time goes on, his popularity has greatly fluctuated, but as of now is underwater. In 2019, he and the Liberal party lost the popular vote, albeit marginally, and are now stuck with a minority government. In any other case, this would be great for the Conservative party, which won the popular vote and dominated Western Canada. However, this was far short of what they had hoped for. Much of the blame fell on Andrew Scheer, the current head of the Conservatives. When he was first elected head of the Conservatives, he was seen as a rising star. He had been the youngest speaker of the House in history, he seemed moderate enough to appeal to a wide base of voters, and he had narrowly beaten out Maxime Bernier, a right-wing populist who would later form his own party. However, he failed to excite people and was caught in a few scandals, forcing him to announce his impending resignation as party leader. Now, we find the Conservatives at another crossroads, not only looking for a way to capitalize on distaste for Trudeau, but to garner a taste for his alternative. As of now, there are four paths.
Peter MacKay – the longtime barnacle
Peter MacKay is one of the two people most responsible for the creation of the Conservative Party itself, with the other being former Prime Minister Stephen Harper. During the 1990s, the conservative ideology was split between the Progressive Conservatives, who had been the preeminent conservative party, and the Reform Party, which had been a more grassroots, right-wing movement. Although the Reform Party was quickly surpassing the Progressive Conservatives, they could not win a government without uniting the right. So, in 2003, the newly elected Progressive Conservative leader, Peter MacKay, who had previously promised not to merge with Reform or its successor, the Alliance Party, agreed to form the Conservative Party with Stephen Harper as its first head. Since then, he has been a barnacle on the Conservative party, impossible to pry off. Now, in this race for Conservative leader, Mackay is campaigning as the most left-leaning candidate. In a time where Canada has become more and more socially Liberal, Mackay hopes to appeal to younger, more moderate Canadians. This may especially help him, as current leader Scheer had been blasted for past homophobic stances. So far, it appears that Mackay may very well be the next leader, as his fundraising numbers, one of the best indicators of electoral success, have outpaced his competition.
Erin O’Toole – the new barnacle
So far, the most viable alternative to Mackay is Erin O’Toole. O’Toole has been a new barnacle in the Conservative Party. Despite only taking office in 2012, he has played a vital role in Andrew Scheer’s shadow cabinet, becoming the shadow Foreign Minister. He has also tried to become Conservative leader last time around. In the 2017 race, he placed 3rd only behind Scheer and Bernier. Back then, he ran as the left-leaning candidate, but now he aims to be the status quo. His best strategy is to paint Mackay as too liberal, which he already takes in stride -his campaign slogan, a “True Blue Conservative,” being a not-so-slight dig at Mackay’s progressivism. So far, he has lagged behind Mackay in fundraising, and will probably get 2nd place. The one solace is that at this rate, he only needs to wait for the next Conservative leadership race to win.
Derek Sloan – the right-winger
Like every conservative party in the Western world, the Conservative Party of Canada has seen a push to the right. In the 90s, that push was by the Reform Party. In 2017, that push was by Bernier, and now it’s by Derek Sloan. Just elected in 2019’s election, Sloan likes to advertise himself as “conservative without apology.” Being the most right-wing of the bunch, Sloan has found himself in controversy, most notably alleging that Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer and a woman of Chinese descent, is working for the Chinese government. He finds himself in last place for both fundraising and in polling.
Leslyn Lewis – the real outsider
Although not completely dominating the party, Christian Canadians have played a major role in the party for its modern history. Scheer and all four candidates are avowed Christians, and all use religion in one way or another. Leslyn Lewis is unique as not only is she the first woman of color running for Conservative leadership, but she is the only one who is not a politician by career. She is also a soft-spoken conservative. While she shares many similar positions to Derek Sloan, particularly a pro-life stance, inflammatory language., has made her an appealing option to those worried that O’Toole and Mackay are either too liberal or too opportunistic, but are also worried about Sloan’s temperament. As a result, she has raised over 1 million Canadian Dollars, and also has begun to build steady support, gaining multiple endorsements along the way. Although it is unlikely that she wins this time around, keep an eye on her in the future.
So Canada’s Conservatives are asking themselves about the future of the party. They realistically have four paths at this point. They could choose to try and steal some Liberal support by picking the progressive Mackay. In the short term, this may be the best option, as there is no viable alternative party for conservatives. In the long term, this might lead to another splintering of the Conservative movement. They could try and pick another Andrew Scheer, someone relatively inoffensive and bland, and just hope that Trudeau screws up badly at some point. They could go down the route of Sloan, and become more right-wing, energizing part of their base at the risk of alienating everyone else. Or they could choose Lewis, an outsider that proposes right-wing policies in a more moderate tone. No matter who they pick, there will be some part of the party that is disappointed. None of these potential leaders are homecoming king or queen material, but this leadership race is more important, as the winner gets something more than just some plastic crown, a shot at the Prime Minister’s seat next election.
Underwater - http://angusreid.org/trudeau-tracker/
Marginally - https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2019/results/
Maxime Bernier https://globalnews.ca/news/6074161/peoples-party-maxime-bernier-populism/
To announce - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50762474
Agreed - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/orchard-accuses-mackay-of-betrayal/article20451890/
Homophobic - https://globalnews.ca/news/5927120/andrew-scheer-same-sex-marriage-redux/
True blue conservative - https://erinotoole.ca
Conservative without apology - https://www.dereksloan.ca/splash?splash=1
Alleging - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tam-sloan-china-caucus-apology-ontario-1.5550103
Fundraising - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-peter-mackay-has-highest-total-donations-erin-otoole-raised-most-in/
Shares - https://www.leslynlewis.ca/policies
Raised - https://www.macleans.ca/politics/leslyn-lewis-social-conservative-party-leadership-2020/
Endorsements - https://electconservatives.ca/endorsement-why-leslyn-lewis-should-lead-the-cpc/?fbclid=IwAR0cFN63AEo5V6J6ZCAaB6QSq9X0ulTW4gyzjlfX2FXUK6gClEjag73Ky08