On the Situation in Belarus

By Brady Condon

When I first joined the Catalyst project, the first article I ever wrote was a quick summary of Belarus’s geopolitical situation. I’m actually quite proud of it for what is was, it’d probably be the article I’d go to if I wanted to explain what I did. 

In general, few people regard Belarus. In the eyes of many, it is just a Russian puppet, isolated from the rest of Europe. Their economy, which is largely state-run, has been unstable for the past half-decade, mostly relying on Russian subsidies. Their population, which peaked at ten million in the 90s, has plateaued if not declined since. As I wrote in my last article on the country, it seemed more likely that Belarus’s future would be controlled by Russian, and particularly Putin’s, desires rather than their own determinism. However, several developments have changed Belarus’s situation. Both of which, for better or for worse, revolve around the leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko. 

Alexander Lukashenko got his start in public life when he became the deputy of one of the many state-run farms of the Soviet Union. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, he entered the Belarussian Parliament, and was elected as Belarus’s first president in 1994. Although his first election to the presidency was generally seen as a fair and free election, he has become more and more dictatorial over the almost three decades he has been in office. His authoritarianism has drawn the ire of many Belarussians, which was expressed in the most recent election. 

Like many authoritarian countries, Lukashenko tries to keep the airs of democracy. As of 2020, he has gone through 6 presidential elections. He has never dropped below 70% of the vote, although the legitimacy of said vote are dubious at best. However, this most recent election had the chance to be different. Lukashenko began the election by imprisoning the Youtube-Blogger Siarhei Tsikhanouskaya . This spurred his wife, Sviatlana, to run instead. Tsikhanouskaya campaigned on restoring fair elections to Belarus. Despite intimidation by Lukashenko, Tsikhanouskaya drew some of the largest crowds in Post-Soviet history behind her cause. When election day came around, she only won around 10% of the vote, although many view the election as widely fraudulent. She was forced to flee to neighboring Lithuania, where she continues to fight for restored democracy. 

While Tsikhanouskaya has remained in Lithuania, many in Belarus have taken to the streets. Protestors in the thousands have risen up all over Belarus, especially in the capitol, Minsk. Lukashenko has met these protests with state-sponsored violence. Unfortunately for Lukashenko, it seems that his response only further enrages the Belarussian people, even causing parts of the police force to defect. The protests have also given rise to new possible leaders within Belarus. Since Tsikhanouskaya has promised not to run again in the case of new elections, the Coordination Council formed by her to bring about new elections is a great place to look for potential successors. Members of this group include Svetlana Alexievich, who won the Nobel Prize in Literature, Pavel Latushko, the former Minister of Culture, and, most interestingly, Sergei Dylevsky, a factory worker who has led workers’ strikes against Lukashenko. Dylevsky in particular has many resemblences to Lech Wałęsa, an electrician who formed Solidarity, a political party and labor union which brought down the communist dictatorship in Poland. Wałęsa also became the first democratically elected President of Poland, a potential future for Dylevsky, though he says he has no interest in becoming a politican. 

Although the Belarussian people are taking fate into their own hands, there are outside forces which play an important part within Belarus’s future. The first is Russia. Putin and Lukashenko have a complicated relationship, as Lukashenko has tried to navigate an increasingly narrow path between becoming a part of Russia and keeping on good terms with the Kremlin. In the last two decades, Russia has supplied Belarus much of its oil at a reduced price, which has kept the Belarussian economy afloat. However, Russia has increasingly chafed at this arrangement, finding it inefficient, so they have pushed for a possible union between the two nations, something Belarus does not want.  At the beginning of 2020, this relationship worsened when Putin raised oil prices for Belarus. The United States sensed an opportunity to pry one of Russia’s closest allies out of their sphere of influence, so they began selling oil to Belarus on the cheap. In this, there is an opportunity for Lukashenko. With the United States and Russia competing for Belarus, Lukashenko may be able to play both powers in his favor. So far, President Trump has remained mostly silent on the matter, while America’s European allies speak out, while Russian troops have moved closer to Belarus’s border. This also provides a grim opportunity to reflect on the past. In Ukraine, a similar situation took place with the Orange Revolution. When a long-time authoritarian was ousted and replaced with a democratic leader, Russia invaded the country, annexing Crimea and supporting separatists in the eastern regions. In the future, Lukashenko may try to draw a parallel between Belarus and Ukraine to dissuade revolution.

Frankly, nobody should buy this argument. Lukashenko is almost 66 years old. Eventually, he will be unable to rule. What happens when he dies or resigns or is ousted? A power vacuum will be created, and Russia can take over Belarus all the same. Right now, there is hope for new leaders of Belarus. For democracy’s benefit, the United States and the European Union must do everything in their power to ensure that a democratic transition can happen. The United States can put pressure on Russia by backing Belarus, though it should take a supporting role to the European Union. The European Union, the main force of the region, must do everything it can to help bring democracy into Belarus, then to integrate it into the rest of Europe. Right now, the future of Belarus is uncertain. For million within the country, we can only hope it turns out a success story like Poland, rather than a warning like Ukraine.