Problems Within the CDU
By: Braeden Condon
Throughout the Western World, conservative and right-wing parties are experiencing a period of soul searching. In the United States, the Republican party will have to navigate a post-Trump era. In Canada, Erin O’Toole, the new Conservative leader has the task of reenergizing conservative Canadians. Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom is constantly under threat of a backbench rebellion, forcing him out of power. Even in Russia, longtime leader Vladimir Putin appears to be preparing for his eventual retirement from the presidency.
This is not the first time any of these countries have had to redefine conservatism. The era of George Bush, Stephen Harper, and David Cameron is far in the past. However, through these changes there has been one continuity leader – Angela Merkel. Since taking power in 2005, Merkel has been a dominating force both within and outside of Germany. However, Merkel’s time has also been limited, with her announcing that she intends to retire after the 2021 election. With her expected departure, the Christian Democratic Union, her party, will have to redefine itself for a post-Merkel World.
Why is this important?
Germany is one of the most important countries in the world because of its economic and political power. Germany is the world’s fourth largest economy, and third largest exporter. Its manufactured goods, especially cars, are seen as some of the best crafted in the world. It also is the de facto leader of the European Union, the world’s most economically influential international organization. With this economic power, Germany has also gained political influence. They have been able to guide European policy for over thirty years. With the United States and the United Kingdom becoming more isolationist, Germany is also likely to become the next leader of the democratic world.
However, Germany may encounter direct threats to their current position. They have been in and out of a technical recession over the past two years; the European Union is slowly pulling itself apart; and China and Russia are seeking to make inroads within the continent. While Merkel has begun to navigate Germany through these challenges, she will not be in power for much longer, so Germany will have to find a way to continue on without her. To understand what route Germany should take, we should consider the different facets of German politics today.
Who is Merkel?
Angela Merkel grew up in East Germany, earning a doctorate in physical chemistry in the mid-1980s. After the reunification of Germany, she slowly worked her way up the CDU’s leadership, until finally becoming leader of the CDU. After the 2005 election, the CDU headed a parliamentary coalition, making Merkel Germany’s first female chancellor. During her time in office, Germany has seen a balanced budget and a (mostly) thriving economy. Eastern European countries have joined the EU, and Merkel grew in influence. After the Great Recession and subsequent Eurozone crisis, Germany took decisive action preventing a collapse of the EU’s currency, cementing German leadership of the Union. Through this time, Merkel has remained broadly popular among her constituents, and has been able to hold onto power despite the changing global dynamics.
However, one major controversy has made Merkel’s position more tenuous – the immigration crisis. In 2015, over 1 million refugees crossed the Mediterranean Sea to seek asylum in Europe. Because other EU countries, especially eastern EU countries, refused to accept any sizable number of refugees, Merkel unilaterally agreed to settle the majority of them within Germany. At first, this was broadly popular within the country. However, after several high-profile cases of crime, German sentiment soured, and accepting refugees became more controversial. As a result, many of those who supported Merkel beforehand abandoned her coalition, voting the Alternative for Germany, or AfD, into parliament for the first time. As a result, Merkel chose to retire after the 2021 election, leading many to wonder who will fill in the void left by her.
CDU Basics
The Christian Democratic Union is one of Germany’s most prominent political parties. Formed immediately after the dissolution of the Third Reich, it was a combination of conservative Protestants and Catholics, who had previously voted in their own respective blocs. Today, it is firmly center-right. Over the course of 75 years, it has worked closely with the Christian Social Union, Bavaria’s more conservative offshoot of the party. The German electoral system has also forced the CDU to work with other parties. In federal elections, Germans get two votes: a constituency vote and a party list vote. For constituency votes, the system is first-past-the-post, or whoever gets the most votes. However, party list votes are tallied nation-wide, and any party earning over 5% of the vote will receive proportional representation in the parliament. This electoral system due prevents any single party from holding a majority, forcing broad coalitions. In elections, Germans get two votes, one for their constituency representative, and another party list vote. In general, the CDU has two choices of coalition partners: either the Social Democratic Party or the Free Democratic Party.
The Social Democratic Party is the center-left party of Germany. It has been the primary counterweight to the CDU and has produced several chancellors in its own right. Despite their obvious differences, the CDU and the SDP have been in a working coalition since 2013. Although the alliance almost guarantees government control for the foreseeable future, it has hurt both parties. In order to form this coalition, Merkel and the CDU have had to move to the left. While this allows for a broadly popular CDU, it also has isolated more conservative Germans, who have begun searching for other parties. The SDP is also hurt, with many left-leaning voters becoming disenchanted with the SDP, leading them to move to other left-wing parties.
The Free Democratic Party is Germany’s liberal party. In the United States, liberalism and left-wing ideology are seen as one in the same. However, this is not the case in almost any other country. In Europe, liberal parties are in favor of free markets and classical liberal policies. They are generally seen as the centrist parties and are extremely pro-EU. Because of its centrist beliefs, the FDP has historically been the popular choice for coalition partner by both the CDU and the SDP. However, due to its troubles garnering constituency votes, the FDP was entirely shut out of parliament in 2013 and has had to rebuild itself.
There are three other parties in parliament that the CDU is unlikely to work with. The first of the parties is Die Linke, or “the Left.” Die Linke is much further left than the SDP, so there is no reason that the CDU would ever choose them over the SDP. Germany’s Green party is also an increasingly powerful force in German politics. Recent polls have shown the Greens beating the CDU and are drawing support from the SDP and Die Linke parties as the left-leaning alternative to the CDU. Although a coalition is possible considering Angela Merkel’s environmentally-friendly ideology, there is little reason that the Greens would choose the CDU over the SDP or Die Linke. The final party is the AfD. Founded by several right-wing economists after the Eurozone crisis, the party floundered as an economic alternative to the CDU. However, after the migrant crisis, it gained steam as an anti-immigrant and decidedly Eurosceptic party, and a key member of Europe’s far-right. Since entering the Federal government in 2017, they have been kept at arm’s length by all parties involved. Fearful of the precedent it would set, it is unlikely that the CDU would ever enter a coalition with the AfD.
Merkel’s Successors
Since Merkel announced her retirement, the CDU has been in flux. In the immediate leadership election, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, dubbed “mini-Merkel” won leadership fairly easily. However, her leadership of the CDU failed at the first obstacle. Thuringia’s state-parliament was hopelessly divided between the six parties. The current President of Thuringia, a member of Die Linke, was unable to secure a parliamentary majority. As a result, the leadership election was opened, and the AfD, to the surprise of all involved, backed the FDP candidate. Not wanting to break precedent, Kramp-Karrenbauer order the members of the CDU not to join the AfD in backing the FDP candidate. The CDU ignored her and joined the AfD in a governing coalition for the first time in history. Although the coalition lasted less than a month, the damage was done, and Kramp-Karrenbauer announced her own intended resignation as party leader.
Currently, there are three candidates running to succeed Kramp-Karrenbauer and Merkel. The first is Armin Laschet, the popular President of North Rhine-Westphalia. He is probably the most liberal of the three candidates, siding with Merkel during the 2015 migrant crisis. However, he advertises himself as a bridge between the centrists and the right-wing of the party. The second candidate is Friedrich Merz, a former rival to Angela Merkel. He is the most conservative candidate in the race, and wants to push the CDU away from Merkel’s established centrism in hopes to regain disaffected voters, many of whom defected to the AfD. The final candidate is Norbert Röttgen, an old party official. He is generally liked by the older CDU establishment, but is seen as out of touch after a disastrous loss when he ran for President of North Rhine-Westphalia.
What the CDU Needs
The CDU is in a tricky spot. As with most democratic countries, a ruling party can only rule for so long before it becomes tired – Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative Party is a good example of this – and people want change. Right now, it seems like the Green Party may enter a coalition with the SDP and Die Linke to shift the government to the left. If the CDU loses this next election, it is an opportune time for soul searching. Irrespective of the next election, the CDU needs to do a balancing act to maintain relevance. On one hand, it needs to shift back to the right. Although Merkel’s centrism was broadly popular, it weakened the party’s conservative base. Many voted for the AfD or, in fewer instances, the FDP. Even the CSU, usually synonymous with the CDU, has drifted away from a centrist CDU. On the other hand, it needs to make itself a possible coalition partner for the SDP, the Greens, or the FDP. If the party moves too far to the right, the SDP and the Greens would prefer each other to the CDU. While this split would likely benefit all parties involved, the CDU should not close the door of opportunity on any future coalition. Finally, the CDU needs to find leadership for the next generation. Every other major party had elected a new leader sometime in the last 8 years. Most of these party leaders are young, providing a fresh face to the electorate. The CDU has unfortunately failed to do the same. Although it should not be expected to find a young leader within the next leadership election, it is an important thing to keep in mind as Germany’s youth becomes more politically active, especially in left-wing politics.
The Future of Conservatism
Conservative parties in general are in an awkward situation. In places like Canada and France, the parties continue to flounder in garnering excitement behind their movement, electing boring, placeholder leaders in hopes of getting some unique personality. In other countries like the US and the UK, the established conservative parties have taken more populist stances, even adopting some left-wing policies. Even worse, in countries like Hungary and Poland, the conservative parties have given way to authoritarian parties, leading to the erosion of democracy. As of now, there is no easy path for these conservative parties to follow. The CDU will have to navigate the same problems. Perhaps if it can successfully revitalize conservatism within its own country, the CDU can provide a course of action for other conservative parties in the world.