Up Shit’s Creek Without A Paddle, The Case Of Brazil

By: Braeden Condon

Recently, Jair Bolsonaro, the president of Brazil, was diagnosed with COVID-19. Even as he spoke with journalists about his diagnosis, he took off his mask, something which he is currently being sued for. Unfortunately, this has become the new norm in Brazil – blatant ignorance in the leadership which everyone else has to just deal with. Many see Bolsonaro as a Trump-like figure, which is not an unfair statement to make: they both are extremely politically incorrect, they both ignore massive crises in their country while exaggerating smaller issues, and they both feed off hate of the establishment and of the fabled “other” to keep power. However, in the United States, there are alternatives. With an upcoming election, people see alternatives in Democrat Joe Biden, Libertarian Jo Jorgenson, and even Birthday Party candidate Kanye West. The same cannot be said for Brazil. With no election in sight and Bolsonaro’s alternatives being even more unattractive, we have to ask how Brazil got stuck in shit creek without a paddle.

History

Brazil’s modern history begins with being a colony of Portugal. In the early 1800s, the son of the Portuguese king declared independence for the Empire of Brazil. By the end of the century, the emperor’s son, Pedro II, had dismantled the monarchy and turned Brazil into an uneasy republic. During the great depression, Gétulio Vargas became dictator in a coup d’état. He was followed by another republic, and another dictatorship, and finally another republic. For the next thirty years, liberal politicians would win time and time again. However, dissatisfaction with the government grew over the years. During the second term of Dilma Rousseff, dozens of scandals took place, most notably the funneling of billions from Petrobras, the national oil company, to private firms. Rousseff herself was later impeached for mishandling of the economy and the national budget. The years of incompetence had made Brazil long for something different.

Enter Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro got his start in Brazilian politics as a military captain advocating for the rank and file, something that got him thrown in a military prison. Over time, he would develop a reputation in Congress for his many infamous quips, from declaring his female colleague was “too ugly to be worth r*ping” to calling for former president Fernando Cardoso to be shot, as well as his nostalgia for the military dictatorships of the past. Many politicians in Brazil dismissed him in the past, but as the crime rate in Brazil increased, as so many politicians were engulfed in scandal after scandal, and as the economy stagnated, people wanted change. Their hopes for change were granted when Bolsonaro took office in 2019, but that change was for the worse.

Bolsonaro’s presidency

Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency has been extremely controversial within the country. In hopes of growing the economy, he destroyed regulations which prevented the cattle and logging industries from carving into the Amazon rainforest, something which has caused large and sustained forest fires. In hopes of spurring investment, he has privatized $20 billion in state industries and hopes to eventually privatize Electrobras and Petrobras, something which he has coupled with tax cuts for the rich. In hopes of deterring crime, he has given increasing power to the police, something which has only increased violence, albeit from the police in this case. The most recent of his actions was actually inaction in combating the coronavirus pandemic. Not only has he downplayed the virus’s deadliness, but he has also taken action to remove anyone who disagrees with his coronavirus analysis, including two health ministers. This has led to two things: a rise in cases, and a fall in his popularity.

Alternatives

It would be a lie to say Jair Bolsonaro is a popular man in Brazil. He no longer has a governing party in the legislature, and he has few allies left. Some members of Congress have even considered impeaching him. However, his alternative is not palatable either. If Bolsonaro was to be removed, Hamilton Mourão, his vice president, would take power. Mourão, a retired general, himself has had a history of praising the past military dictatorship. While Bolsonaro has few allies, Mourão would be able to count on the support of the military. Many opposed to Bolsonaro’s impeachment argue against giving Mourão the presidency rather than letting Bolsonaro keep it. It seems that Bolsonaro understands this, as he has claimed that Mourão can do much worse than him. The next election isn’t until 2022, so for the forseeable future, Bolsonaro is able to keep power.

Conclusion

So it seems that the Brazilian’s find themselves in shit creek without a paddle. Jair Bolsonaro will be able to maintain power for the foreseeable future. With the coronavirus pandemic and an unhinged president, it may seem like we have no autonomy. That is not the case. Let Bolsonaro be a lesson, if enough people vote, anyone can win office. Much of Bolsonaro’s support was derived from the youth. These youth, and in turn the youth in democracies all over the world, have an obligation. We are the ones who can decide the future, and it can either be a future with inspiring leaders, or a future with Bolsonaro. Unfortunately, this generation is the paddle, and we’re going to have to wade through a lot of shit to get to smoother waters.

Currently being sued for - https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/08/889268503/brazils-bolsonaro-sued-for-unmasking-as-he-announced-positive-test-for-covid-19

Birthday Party candidate - https://www.forbes.com/sites/randalllane/2020/07/08/kanye-west-says-hes-done-with-trump-opens-up-about-white-house-bid-damaging-biden-and-everything-in-between/#4e32999d47aa

Funneling of billions from Petrobras - https://www.vox.com/2016/3/18/11260924/petrobras-brazil

Later impeached - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36028247

Military captain - https://politica.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,o-julgamento-que-tirou-bolsonaro-do-anonimato,70002249929

Crime rate - https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/brazils-violence-map-shows-alarming-trends

Destroyed regulations - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/world/americas/amazon-deforestation-brazil.html

$20 billion - https://en.mercopress.com/2019/08/17/bolsonaro-administration-has-privatized-some-us-20bn-of-assets

Electrobras https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eletrobras-privatization/eletrobras-shares-rise-as-bolsonaro-poised-to-privatize-idUSKBN1XF1BQ

Petrobras - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-petrobras-privatization/brazils-bolsonaro-wants-to-privatize-petrobras-by-end-of-his-term-report-idUSKCN1VB2CW

Increased violence - https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/06/03/brazil-suffers-its-own-scourge-police-brutality

Tax cuts for the rich - https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/01/04/bolsonaro-unveils-mass-privatization-plan-brazil-while-slashing-taxes-rich-and-wages